Monday, August 21, 2017

VISA BULLETIN: ANALYSIS FOR 2017-18

The Department of State’s Visa Bulletin guru, Charlie Oppenheim, hosts monthly meetings with the American Immigration Lawyers Association.  Charlie Oppenheim is the Department of State’s Chief of the Control and Reporting Division. He is the officer who is responsible for producing the Visa Bulletin each month.

This month’s Check In With Charlie featured projections for EB-2 and EB-3, which are the most popular categories for readers of this Blog.  Here are some of this month’s highlights, along with our analysis:

EB-2 Worldwide.  The Worldwide EB-2 should return to current in October and remain there for the rest of this calendar year.

EB-2 India.  This category is expected to use the full allotment of visas in September, which may result in the category becoming temporarily unavailable.  Charlie hopes to advance the final action date to December 2008 in the 1Q 2018.  It may advance into 2009 at some point in late FY2018.

EB-2 and EB-3 China. In FY2018, EB-2 and EB-3 will return to the prior inverted condition where China EB-3 has a smaller retrogression than China EB-3.  History tells us that this leads to China EB-3 “downgrades”.

EB-3 Worldwide.  This category will remain current or close to current for the foreseeable future.

EB-3 India.  This category will advance about one retrogress month by one real calendar month in FY 2018. 

EB-3 Philippines.   It is not expected that FY2018 will be as positive as FY2017 was to this category.  Charlie speculates, and Musillo Unkenholt can confirm based on our internal metrics, that progressions will slow in FY2018.  We expect an average of about a 1.5-2-year retrogression in FY 2018.  

29 comments:

  1. Hi,
    My PD is Feb 2015 and finished all the steps sent by the NVC. My documents are for review and am just waiting to be document qualified. Just in case that the review of documents are in process and retrogression comes in, will i be affected on this? thank you for addressing this concern.

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  2. Your application will be held until such time that your priority date becomes current again. See the official USCIS statement. https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/visa-retrogression

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  3. Greetings! MU
    Im EB3 Phil. PD aug. 2014, already had submitted supporting documents to NVC. if we have reached at this point will we preserve our status as current and not to be included in the retrogression that you have projected? Thank you!

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    1. I have not predicted an increased retrogression. I expect that the retrogression will be 1.5-2 years, i.e. retrogression of early 2016.

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  4. If the Philippines EB3 goes back to a date before Aug 2014, then your application for AoS gets on hold.

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  5. Hello everyone!

    May I ask base on your experience how many months did your receive notification from nvc such as the visa fee bill and submission of required documents after your pd gets current. Thanks for the enlightenment..

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  6. once your choice of agent is approved(3 weeks), you will receive notification from NVC to proceed to step 2 for fee bill payment (your agent will pay on your behalf). You will wait 2-3 days to get it processed. Once processed, you will start answering the ds260 and submit all the civil documents (your obligation to get all of these requirements and send to your agent) and financial documents(c/o the one who sponsored your application). Then, it will be reviewed for 11 weeks and NVC will notify you for any missing/ lacking requirements. Once completed, your embassy interview will be scheduled. Please refer to your NVC welcome letter sent to you for your guidance.

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  7. Tnx RN 08! My PD May 15, 2015 under EB3 is current this month and still have not yet received welcome letter from the NVC, hope to have updates soon. thanks for sharing..

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    1. Are you under an agency or hired directly by a facility?You have been current since July 2017,by this time they should have paid your fee bill already.

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    2. Hi,

      I have read that retrogression might happen in fiscal year 2018..Is it expected to happen during the first quarter of the fiscal year?

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  8. Tnx Ivztan.. still hoping this month i will have an update.

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    1. Hi mm... any update about your case? My PD is Dec 2014, still I havent received any notification from NVC...

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    2. hi! I already received my receipt invoice.. hope to have yours too already.

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  9. What do you mean by saying 1.5 to 2 years retrogression? Does it mean from 2018 or from whatever the current priority date is?

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    1. 1.5- 2 years means that the priority date will be in early 2016/late 2015.

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  10. Hi MU,
    This retrogression will happen in October 2017 (first fiscal year of 2018)? Or usually it happens by the end of the fiscal year? I am just concerned because My documents are now for review. Thank you very much

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  11. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  12. hi MU Law do you think by the end of FY 2018, the current PD will be atleast June 2017 or earlier? Thanks!

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  13. Hi MU,

    Could you please explain about EB3 India advancement in detail, thanks!

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  14. Hi Mu law!! I'm always a fan of your blog.. May I know what does it mean when you say 1.5 to 2 years retrogression? Does it mean that it will go back to PD's of 2015? and why do you think this will happen?Thank you.

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  15. To be clear: I expect that the Phils EB-3 PD in Oct 2017 will be approx. Jan 2016 (1.5 - 2 years from Oct 2017). I expect that the Phils EB-3 PD in Jan 2018 will be approx. Apr 2016 (1.5 - 2 years from Jan 2018), and etc.

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  16. Thanks MU law and more power!!

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  17. DEAR MU,
    MY PD JULY 2015 IS CURRENT AND I HAVE SUBMITTED ALL MY DOCUMENTS TO NVC. AM I GOING TO BE AFFECTED WITH THE RETROGRESSION?
    THANK YOU SO MUCH,
    VIKKI

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  18. Hi mu! Just want to ask on where they will send the receipt notice, is ist to your lawyer or to the primary applicat, or both? We sent our application (i 485) last august 2, 2017 but up to now we haven't receive any notice of receipt yet, thank you!

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  19. Hello MU! My PD is January 12,2016 under EB3 Phils. When do you predict this will be current? Thank you so much!

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  20. my pd is Feb 2007b EB3 india. when do i expect to be current.

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