Wednesday, February 17, 2016

LOOKING AT THE VISA BULLETIN CRYSTAL BALL

Employment Based Green cards are processed by “priority date” in a FIFO (first-in, first-out) manner.  A nurse’s “priority date” is established on the day that the nurse’s immigrant visa petition is first filed.  A nurse retains her priority for the rest of her life, even if she files a later Green card case with a subsequent employer.

From 2005-2008 the industry saw massive numbers of nursing petitions.  These petitions were fueled by: (a) enormous demand for foreign-trained nurses and (b)a special piece of legislation that exempted nurse green cards from the overall green card quota in 2005-2006.  The special legislation ended in 2007.

Many of these nurses received their green cards and are now working in the US.  However a large number of nurses did not receive their green cards because in 2009 the demand slowed for foreign-trained nurses and because retrogression spiked.

From 2009-13 there was a paucity of nurse immigration petitions.  Starting in 2013 we saw a rebound for foreign-trained nurses.  Industry leaders sought out nurses with priority dates from the 2005-2008, who had never received their US green cards.  Since 2013 the industry has seen thousands of nurse’s green card petitions “re-filed” using the 2005-08 retained priority date.

My sense is that the population of nurses Filipino nurses who can retain their 2005-2008 priority dates are close to exhausted.  Accordingly, I expect that once the Philippine EB-3 priority date Visa Bulletin reaches 2010, it will quickly accelerate through to at least 2013 and perhaps to 2015.

Nurses born in countries other than India, China, or the Philippines (Rest Of World) have no visa retrogression problem.  Green cards are being issued for these nurses in under one year, as demand for the Worldwide nurses has yet to impact the Visa Bulletin.  Because of the calculus involved in the Visa Bulletin computation, I expect the ROW EB-3 Visa Bulletin to be near “current” for the foreseeable future.

15 comments:

  1. chris, when do you think PD 2010 be current
    thank you

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    1. Hi Coco -what is your country of birth?

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    2. Coco: I think Phils EB3 will reach 2010 soon. Maybe as soon as late spring/early summer.

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  2. But what about the nurses with priority date July 2006 from India?? Any guesses

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  3. But what about the nurses with priority date July 2006 from India?? Any guesses

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    Replies
    1. Hi Rajneesh, India EB3 is probably 2 years from July 2006. Be sure to reconnect with your US employer now to make sure that they still have a position for you. If they do not, you still have time to find a new employer and retain the July 2006 priority date.

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  4. Hi MU Law, base on crystall ball, less chances of retro for current fiscal year for EB3 Phil? Thanks in advance for response.

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    Replies
    1. Hi Emer- My sense is that Phils EB3 will continue to advance steadily and not retrogress (other than the usual temporary retrogression in September at the end of the US fiscal year).

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    2. This is noted MU law. Thanks again and God Bless

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    3. You're welcome, Emer. Thanks for reading.

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  5. Hi MU law, we have visa pd jan 2010 we experienced retrogression last year of May, but NVC informed us that our papers were on the process meaning they already the papers filed by the employer. Once our pd becomes current, how long it takes for NVC to set an interview for us in Manila Embassy? Thanks for future answer.

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  6. Thanks for response. I read your forecast about eb3 phils, hopefully it will come true. Our pd is Jan 11 ,2010 , we are positive before the end of fiscal year it will be current again. Have a great day ahead.

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