VISA BULLETIN PROJECTIONS FOR 2013

Charles Oppenheim of the Department of State is the person most responsible for each month’s Visa Bulletin.  In a conversation with AILA, Mr. Oppenheim recently discussed projections for future Visa Bulletins.  MU Law has spoken with Mr. Oppenheim several times in the past and have always found that his projections are well thought out and very accurate.

Here are some important notes from that conversation:

• India EB2 will see very little movement in the foreseeable future.  Many immigrant visa applicants with old India EB3s are recapturing these dates in subsequent EB2 applications, thereby holding back the progression of India EB2.  Current numbers indicate that there are approximately 42,000 India EB2 cases in line with priority dates prior to May 2010.  These numbers cannot account for future upgraded India EB3s.
• The USCIS and DOS have pre-adjudicated 44,000 India EB-3 Applications with priority dates before August 2007.  Therefore it will be several years before India EB-3 progresses beyond that date.
• There are 12,000 India EB3 cases with priority dates before January 2004, which means that India EB3 will not improve into 2004 for at least one or two years.
• Worldwide EB-3 has 42,000 pre-adjudicated cases with priority dates before March 2007.  Still, the Worldwide EB-3 date is May 2007.  Mr. Oppenheim did not say it, but it reasonable follows that many of these 42,000 Worldwide EB-3s likely have been abandoned.

·         Because it is impossible to predict how many EB2s are upgraded to EB2, it is nearly impossible to predict future dates.  For instance, Worldwide EB3 had 1,100 upgrades in December 2012.  In 2007, there were only 72 upgrades for the entire year.