Wednesday, February 22, 2017

MONTHLY VISA BULLETIN PROJECTIONS: PHILS EB-3 TO ADVANCE INTO 2014

The Department of State’s Visa Bulletin guru, Charlie Oppenheim, hosts monthly meetings with the American Immigration lawyers Association.  Charlie Oppenheim is the Department of State’s Chief of the Control and Reporting Division. He is the officer who is responsible for producing the Visa Bulletin each month.  

This month’s Check In With Charlie featured predictions about EB2 and EB3, which are the most popular categories for readers of this Blog.  Here are some of this month’s highlights:

Philippine EB-3As with last month, Charlie again offered his most optimistic predictions for this category.  He said that he expects predicts future advancement at a pace of “up to six months.” He expects that the Philippine EB-3 date should quickly move through 2012 and 2013, and quickly move into 2014.  This is consistent with internal MU Law analysis, which sees this category progressing at least into 2013 by the summer of 2017.  

India EB-2 – Charlie hopes that the India EB-2 category can progress at a pace of “up to one month.”  He cautions that an increase in EB-3 upgrades could slow the progression of India EB-2.

India EB-3 – There was no specific comment by Charlie.  MU Law expects that India EB-3 will progress at about the same 1-2 week rate as it has in prior months.  The India EB-3 date may stall/stop in the summer of 2017, as the full allotment of numbers gets used.  It will then recommence in October.  This is normal.  It happens every year.  Read our FAQ on why the Visa Bulletin progression stops in August and September.

Worldwide EB-2 and EB-3 – EB-2 will remain current for the foreseeable future.  Worldwide EB-3 will continue to move ahead steadily and be effectively current.

China EB-2 and EB-3 – These categories are the most difficult to predict because of the upgrade/downgrade phenomenon of EB-2 and EB-3.  At present China EB-3 is 15 months ahead of EB-2.

50 comments:

  1. Greetings! MU Law
    So can EB-3 Phil with PD of 2014 (mine is Aug.) can expect that it will be current this fiscal year which will end in Oct. 2017 or at least within this year?
    My assumption on the trend is that it jump for 6 months because it was the time that there were no applicants followed the recession period but after the opening employers started sponsoring (EB3) that resulted to most of the priority dates on the months of 2013-2014 onward.
    Based on this when the PD 2014 JAN comes will the transition slow down again due to increasing volume of applicants? or PD 2014 is not so congested?
    -will it finish all the months of the year until DEC 2017?
    Thank you!
    warm regards,

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    1. Hi Lawrence,
      Yes- my sense is that your PD will be current in the year.

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  2. I have complied with the requirements and documents have submitted in NVC and my PD is current already. The documents were submitted last October 2016. Last December, I was asked to submit a dubai police clearance since I was in dubai before but i am already residing in the Philippines and my lawyer have already sent a respond to NVC that I am here in Philippines but up to now I am still waiting for the interview packet. How long is the waiting time for the interview packet? Thank you.

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    1. Hi, Chris. I dont know if this can help but if your Case was already endorsed or forwarded to Manila Console maybe you should contact Manila Embassy. to check if your Case status in NVC (U.S.A.) you can go here https://ceac.state.gov/IV/Login.aspx and log in your Case number and Invoice number from your visa fee bill. Have you already paid the visa Fee bill and submitted your supporting documents?
      warm regards!

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    2. by the way I think were on the same boat somehow. Maybe we can help each other out? you can reach me on my Facebook account Lawrence Dayot.

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    3. My documents have already been submitted to NVC and im waiting for the interview packet which is endorsement of my papers to US Manila embassy but it's taking long. I wanted to know how long will i have to wait. :(

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    4. Maybe you can try this number 16033340700 thats the NVC hotline. Or ask your Recruiter. Goodluck!
      Or maybe your Police clearance is still being validated that could have caused the delay.

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    5. Hi Chris- What is your PD? The NVC often asks for documentation in advance of the PD being current. But the US Embassy in Dubai cannot schedule your appointment until you are, in fact, current.

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    6. My pd is 2008 and my interview embassy is Manila.. thank you for your reply

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    7. You need to contact your attorney, Chris. This is a fixable problem.

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    8. https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/immigrate/immigrant-process/documents/Submit_documents.html

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    1. Philippines? No - I think that 2020 is more likely.

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    3. Yes - there is a chance, but I do not think that it is likely.

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  4. Dear MU,
    I am a very keen follower of your blog, and am very appreciative of your guidance in navigating the complex immigration system.
    I am a PT with approved (I-140 EB-2 India, PD -Nov, 2010). I have been offered a position with another company which will get me closer to my family, that is willing to do my H1 B transfer and also start my GC process within a month of hiring- which would be June, 2017. With the new administration and new proposed bills, I am very apprehensive to risk my current status. Do you think it is safe for me to change companies and refile my I-140 in June? Or is it safe NOT to consider any job changes at this point? I would really appreciate you guidance.
    Thank you in advance

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    1. Thanks for the kind words. While I cannot speak to any employer situation, if the new employer is a good company, I do not see much added risk. Good luck!

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  5. Hi Chris, with this pace, do you think my pd may be current before september 2017, my pd is feb 14, 2014, eb3 philippines, thank you!

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    1. Hi Rowan, It is difficult to be very precise. My sense is probably, but this is far from a sure thing.

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  6. our PD is may 2016, what year do you think that will be current at the pace it is going? and will it be possible to reapply for eb2 once able even though there is an approve I-140 already?

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    1. Hi Vincent,
      If you are EB3 with a may 2016 PD, you are probably going to be current in late 2019/early 2020.

      If you are a nurse EB2 is basically impossible. If you are a PT/OT, it may be possible. You will need to have a good attorney take a look at your case.

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  7. hi MU law, just wondering why the PD 2016 of EB-3 philippines will be most likely process by 2019/2020 if the PD is moving at a promising rate.

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    1. @Ice: Because there are many more Phils EB3s from 2015-2017 than from 2010 - 2014.

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  8. How about eb3 phils, dec 2014? Is there a chance to be current this year? Thank you

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    1. Hi Victor, Probably late 2017/early 2018.

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  9. Hello. I have a PD of june 2016, i understand your estimate of 2019-2020 for final date, but how about the date for filing (2nd chart)? Is it possible for my PD to be current on this chart soon?

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    1. No - it is unlikley to be current anytime soon unfortunately.

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  10. MU Law,

    Hi! I read an article from ImmigrationGirl.

    She said:
    EB-3 Philippines: Lower demand for EB-1 and EB-2 Philippines has allowed additional numbers to fall down to EB-3 Philippines and this category may advance up to six months at a time for April, May, and June.

    In your article, it's stated "quickly move into 2014." Is that by end of this fiscal year or end of this calendar year?

    Thank you.

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    1. @ Concerned: I think she and I are saying the same thing. It is very difficult to get to the level of precision that you are requesting. Whether the EB-3 date gets to 2014 by the end of the fiscal year or calendar year is almost immaterial.

      Having said that, I think by the end of the fiscal year. But I cannot guarantee that prediction.

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  11. I am currently working in the US on EAD combo card. I140 approved, I485 pending with priority date 9/2014 EB3 Philippines. What would the next steps for me be once I become current? Thanks!

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  12. You do not need to do anything.

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    1. Thank you MU Law!! I'm sorry if this is a sill questions, what should I expect when I become current? An interview or letter of AOS approval? Thanks!!!!

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    2. It is not a silly question! You should not expect an interview. The AOS approval notice should come in the mail.

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  13. Hello MU Law! my pd is August 15, 2015. Do you have any idea when it is going to be current? Thank you!

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    1. Hi ydek,
      My guess would be the end of 2018. But whenever I'm projecting that far out, please accept a wide variance in my projection.

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    1. Sure- it is possible. Mid -2018 is more likely.

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  16. Any idea when EB3 philippines PD June 2015 will be current?

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  17. Any idea when eb3 phil will be current for priority date of may 2014. And if and when it becomes current, how long will it take from that point to get the green card provided that I submitted all the remaining requirements on time?

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    1. Thanks Mu Law. And if and when the priority date becomes current, how long is the waiting time from that point before i get the green card? I was able to file AOS a year and a half ago when my PD was briefly current before it massively retrogressed.

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  18. Good Morning MU,

    I would like to ask for your insight: I am EB3-Phil Holder with September 2014 PD with approved I-140

    Will my PD be current on the 3rd quarter and this year and can I get my greencard before the end of this year?

    Your insight and response is highly appreciated.

    Thank you so much in advance

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