Tuesday, June 24, 2014

VISA PROJECTIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS

MU Lawyers were at AILA’s annual convention in Boston last week.  In discussing the Visa Bulletin with several attorneys, and piecing together some information from DOS officials, here are our unofficial projections for the remainder of Fiscal Year 2014, which ends September 30, 2014.

EB-1  
EB-1 is expected to stay current through the Fiscal Year.

EB-2
China:  Chinese EB-2 numbers could progress, although it does not appear that it will move too quickly.
India:  Indian EB-2 numbers jumped dramatically between May and June 2014, progressing nearly four years to September 2008.  Our sense is that the Indian EB-2 number will continue to stay in 2008, and will continue to progress because the DOS does not want a single visa to go unused in this category.  The number may temporarily become unavailable in September 2014, which is common.
All Other: All other EB-2 should remain Current for the remainder of the Fiscal Year.

EB-3
China: Chinese EB-3 numbers have been on a wild ride this year.  They were into 2012 for much of the year before a massive retrogression in June.  There is a sense that the DOS is unsure just how many numbers are needed.  MU Law’s read is that the number will progress this summer, perhaps several years.  Again, the DOS is trying to insure that all numbers in this category are used.
India: The DOS has this category accurately projected.  As a result India EB-3 will continue its very slow progression.
Philippines:  It seems unlikely that this number will get into 2010.  That having been said, the number should progress steadily in FY 2015.

All Other:  The DOS tapped the breaks on this number in June, stalling it at April 2011.  MU Law’s sense is that the number will progress before becoming temporarily unavailable later in the Summer. 

13 comments:

  1. Regarding EB3 Philippines, what do you mean by " It seems unlikely that this number will get into 2008"? It is already January 1, 2009 in the latest July visa bulletin.

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  2. Thanks for the catch, Jose. I meant 2010.

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    1. Ooops, the cut-off in the latest visa bulletin for the Philippines is June 1, 2010 already contrary to what you have projected.

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  3. hi. what are the basis of this prediction?

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  4. Discussing the Visa Bulletin with several attorneys and piecing together some information from DOS officials,

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  5. I seriously doubt your predictions now. Even your VISA BULLETIN PREDICTIONS FOR SUMMER 2014 was nowhere near the target. It is unreliable. it will go beyond 2010 contrary to your prediction.

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  6. http://www.musillo.com/2014/04/visa-bulletin-predictions-for-summer.html = did not happen for the Philippines

    http://www.musillo.com/2014/06/visa-projections-for-next-few-months.html = most likely to not happen again for the Philippines

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  7. @Schedule A - I think you should go back and re-read what I wrote.
    http://www.musillo.com/2014/04/visa-bulletin-predictions-for-summer.html

    The only thing we said was that the Phils EB3 may eventually become temporarily unavailable, as happens every summer.

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    1. yes just like any prediction, you/they play it safe, claiming credit when it becomes true and denying when it doesn't. i would rather not put false hopes on anyone with this guess work.

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  8. are you saying that the ROW unavailable will be this summer? because that might make some sense, else if you look at the numbers for ROW, most likely it may become current Mid 2015 or end 2015

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    1. if it becomes current then we may see another JULY 2007 visa bulletin fiasco where everyone wants a piece of the small pie. you can thank AOS especially, so i would rather see dates than the letter C to spare us all from the GREAT FLOOD that affected us all by controlling the flow of water at the faucet.

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  9. @Migo - Yes. It would not surprise me if the ROW EB3 becomes temporarily unavailable later in the summer.

    That having been said, I could never guess where the dates will be in mid/late 2015. Anyone who does is really just guessing since no one has any idea how many people will actually complete their visa process.

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  10. Well, if you look at PERM approvals for ROW it is very low compared to 2007 and before
    high number of EB2 ROW approvals for the same period 2007 till now
    currently USCIS is processing a 4 years backlog in just 1.5 years.

    you can make a good educated guess about where EB2/3 ROW will be next year, specially there is no porting that may complicate the calculation.

    the only variable is the derivative which in EB3 i don't think it will cause any issues.

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